Amid the rise in the number of House Democrats not running for reelection in next year’s midterms as their party tries to hold on to its fragile majority in the chamber, House GOP leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy is predicting there will be plenty more to come.
Long-serving Democratic Reps. David Price of North Carolina and Mike Doyle of Pennsylvania announced Monday they wouldn’t seek reelection in 2022. Their news came just a few days after fellow Democrat and House Budget Committee chair Rep. John Yarmuth of Kentucky also said he’d retire from Congress after the end of his current term.
This leads to seven House Democrats retiring rather than running for reelection in 2022, with another five seeking statewide or other offices rather than bidding for another two years in the House. And we’ve yet to hit the traditional peak season for congressional retirements.
The GOP needs a net gain of just five seats in the 435-member chamber next year to regain the House majority it lost to the Democrats in the 2018 midterms. Republicans have history on their side – on average the party that wins the White House in a presidential election loses more than 25 House seats in the ensuing midterm election. And the once-in-a-decade congressional redistricting process – which is underway – is expected to favor the GOP, as Republicans control more state legislatures and governors’ offices.
A veteran Democratic consultant cautioned against reading too much into the trio of retirement announcements over the past week.
“Not all retirements mean the same thing. These Democrats who retire from safe seats don’t impact the path to hold the majority,” said Jesse Ferguson, who served in top positions at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the 2012 and 2014 cycles.
But of the seven House Democratic retirements, four come from very competitive districts. They are Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, Cheri Bustos of Illinois, Filemon Vela of Texas and Ron Kind of Wisconsin. And Rep. Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania – who’s running for the Senate – and Rep. Charlie Crist of Florida – who’s running for governor – narrowly won reelection last year. While all of these seats may be altered during redistricting, they are being heavily targeted by House Republicans as they aim to recapture the majority in the chamber.
House retirements are often seen as an early barometer of things to come in the midterms. The last time the House flipped, amid a blue wave in the 2018 midterms, there were 23 GOP retirements compared to just 10 among House Democrats. Competitive seats become even more vulnerable without a well-known incumbent with a healthy war chest running for reelection.
Republicans are holding out hope that tides will change in the 2022 midterms. Many feel we need a change of pace and a new lease on a future that’s led in a more promising direction.
Well when you have been running of the platform of orange buy bad for years, you suddenly realize you have no more appeal to anyone because your party is wrecking this country.