Former President Trump made an appearance Saturday to rally support; his first in the competitive central plains state since last year’s election. The 2022 midterm elections will be front and center during his visit.
However, in a state whose caucuses for half a century have kicked off the presidential nominating process, there will also be plenty of 2024 intrigue.
“Iowa is absolutely critical to our efforts to take back the House and Senate in 2022, and then the White House in 2024,” Trump said in an email to supporters earlier this week.
Republicans need a net gain of one seat to retake control in the 100-member Senate and a net gain of five seats in the 435-member House to win back the majority in next year’s midterm election.
The path to a GOP House majority may run through the Hawkeye State, where three of the state’s four representatives are Republicans. Two of them – Reps. Ashley Hinson and Mariannette Miller-Meeks – won their seats by a very thin margin last November and will likely face challenging reelections. And the GOP is targeting the state’s only Democrat in the House, Rep. Cindy Axne, who narrowly won reelection last year.
Throw in high profile reelections for Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and longtime GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley, and Iowa will spend an abundant amount of time in the campaign spotlight in the year leading up to the 2022 midterms.
“I think it’s a sign that President Trump is going to be heavily involved in 2022. This is about the president understanding that Iowa could be the pathway to a majority in the federal House…I really think you’re going to hear him say a lot about 2022,” said Iowa GOP Jeff Kaufmann.
Kaufmann, along with Reynolds, Grassley and the rest of the Republican members of the state’s congressional delegation will make a speech during the rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines ahead of the president’s evening address. And some of those GOP politicians may land Trump endorsements at the rally.
One of Trump’s top two political advisers in the state, Eric Branstad, emphasized that midterms are at the forefront of his agenda. Branstad, who steered the former president’s campaign efforts in the Hawkeye State in the 2016 and 2020 elections and who is the son of former longtime Gov. Terry Branstad, stated that he and the rest of the former president’s team in Iowa “are focused on electing Republicans up and down the ticket. That’s where they are placing all their focus.
When asked if there are 2024 implications to Trump’s visit to support 2022 Republicans, Kauffman answered, “Are the two linked? Of course they are. We’re in Iowa.”
Trump arrived in the Hawkeye State days after scoring his best favorable ratings ever in the Des Moines Register poll, which is considered the gold standard in this neck of the woods.
Fifty-three percent of Iowans had a favorable view of the Trump and 45% hold an unfavorable view, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey released on Monday. And among Republicans only, he was at a sky high 91% favorability.
“Donald Trump is going to get an incredible reception in Iowa. He’s very popular with the base. He’ll be off to a big lead in Iowa if he decides to run,” longtime Iowa based GOP consultant David Kochel said.
Trump repeatedly teases about making another presidential run to try and return to the White House. “I can’t reveal it yet. But I absolutely know my answer. We’re going to do very well. And people are going to be very happy,” Trump said in July, when asked if he’d run again.
Trump remains very popular and influential with Republican voters as he continues to play a kingmaker’s role in GOP primary politics, and he would be the clear frontrunner for his party’s presidential nomination if he decides to run. But his repeated hints at running have prevented other potential 2024 contenders from making visits to Iowa as well as New Hampshire, which for a century has held the first presidential primary, and South Carolina and Nevada, the other two early voting states.
Kochel, a veteran of a number of GOP presidential campaigns over the past couple of decades, highlighted that “there’s plenty of willingness by Iowa Republicans to go out and see other potential 2024 candidates. I don’t think anyone is staying away because I don’t think anyone really knows what the future holds and whether or not Trump ultimately makes a decision to run.”
But he added that if Trump does follow through on his hints and actually runs, “it’s going to be an uphill battle for anyone else.”
“If he has the intention to run, there’s no two better people to hire than Branstad and Latcham,” Kochel said. “If you’re going to do it, or even if you’re going to send the signal that you may run, that’s the move that you make.”
Trump is definitely sending a message, that if he wants to get organized in Iowa, he can do it quickly.
