GOP Governor Candidates Surge Ahead In Final Campaign Weeks

Lee Zeldin is not the only Republican giving Democrats a run for their money in governor’s races this election season.

The Long Island congressman, who has narrowed what was once a 20-point gap with Democratic Gov. Hochul to a virtual tie in polls, is one of many GOP gubernatorial candidates across the country surging in the polls ahead of Nov. 8.

“When the not-super-engaged voters start to pay attention, that’s usually when you see things break,” said Sean Noble, a GOP consultant based in Arizona. “Unfortunately for Democrats, this year things are breaking for the Republicans.”

12 out of 33 governor’s races this year, including New York, are rated as toss-ups. Here are just a few updates on some races and the direction their polls are currently leaning.

Kari Lake and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs.

“First-time candidate Kari Lake, a brash former newscaster, is energizing voters who don’t usually turn out for a midterm,” said pollster Richard Baris of Big Data Poll.

A strong showing for Lake could doom the Democrats’ hopes of holding the US Senate. If she wins by four points or more, Blake Masters probably will be pulled over with her, defeating incumbent Dem Sen. Mark Kelly, Baris predicted.

Incumbent Gretchen Whitmer is facing a surprising challenge from Tudor Dixon.

“In Michigan, the COVID lockdown issue is still fresh in voters’ minds,” said Baris.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who imposed some of the nation’s most extreme pandemic restrictions, falsely claimed in an Oct. 25 debate that Michigan kids were kept out of school for just three months. The comment drew huge backlash, boosting the challenger Tudor Dixon, who has made Whitmer’s COVID policy the centerpiece of her campaign.

Incumbent Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and GOP Doctor Scott Jensen.

The latest poll in Minnesota, where violent crime skyrocketed in the aftermath of the George Floyd riots of 2020, put Dr. Scott Jensen, a family physician and former GOP state senator, in a dead heat with Gov. Tim Walz. “The trend is going Scott Jensen’s way,” wrote John Hinderaker, a conservative pundit. “If Republicans can make it here, they can make it anywhere.”

Well-funded Josh Shapiro still might clinch the open Pennsylvania governor’s seat.

“Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race is the one bright spot for Democrats,” said Baris, who polled Pennsylvania after Democrat John Fetterman flopped disastrously in this week’s debate with Mehmet Oz, his rival for the US Senate. “Oz’s numbers are growing,” Baris said. “But Doug Mastriano is running about 6 points behind Oz.” The senate race may have a trickle-up effect for Mastriano,” Baris said. “However, it might not be enough to beat well-funded Josh Shapiro.