After constant promises of an economy that would be firing on all cylinders from President Joe Biden to the American citizens, Friday’s disappointing jobs report suggests otherwise. A slowdown in growth could instead lead to the forefront in voter’s minds in the 2022 elections.
Republicans quickly seized on the modest gains of 194,000 jobs in September as evidence that Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, enacted more than six months ago, has failed to deliver as promised.
Biden instead chose to highlight a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.8% as proof of “real economic progress”; even if it wasn’t the boom he was hoping for months ago.
Democrats further offered the latest jobs report as a reason to pass their proposed multitrillion-dollar tax and spending program to help with infrastructure, school, child care, family leave and health care, saying it is needed to improve prospects for continued growth.
Biden pleaded for patience from the our county’s citizens after the job report was released. Biden said, “Turn on the news and every conversation is a confrontation. Every disagreement is a crisis. But when you take a step back and look at what’s happening, we’re actually making real progress.”
“Maybe, it doesn’t seem fast enough,” Biden stated. “I’d like to see it faster and we’re gonna make it faster.”
The jobs report revealed an economy still trying to heal from the coronavirus pandemic, but views of the pace and robustness of that recovery can easily fall prey to political spin. The U.S. economy is large and diverse enough that it can send conflicting signals.
Republicans can correctly assert that Biden is now unlikely to deliver on the 7 million new jobs he touted earlier this year. Democrats are simultaneously trying to highlight what appears to be the strongest economic growth in decades.
Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas), was happy to offer a reminder that Biden repeatedly cited a report by Moody’s Analytics that his relief package would create 7.2 million jobs, a total now unlikely.
Brady said the infusion of government aid actually has discouraged Americans from seeking jobs and Biden’s proposed corporate tax increases are now spooking employers.
Brady also stated, “Frankly, the president’s leadership is to blame here. I think one of the reasons economic optimism is down across the board significantly, is not just with families, but with businesses as well. It’s because they see these impending tax hikes. They know they’ll be crippling.”
However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi saw the jobs report as “additional proof” of a need for the programs those taxes would support.
Pelosi said, “While historic progress to create jobs, lower unemployment and defeat the pandemic has been forged under President Biden and Congressional Democrats, more must be done.”
Whatever the political spin, inflation running above 5% and job growth slowing will put Democrats on the defensive.
Glen Bolger, a Republican strategist and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, noted that independent voters tend to put a greater priority on the economy and their support will be decisive in the 2022 elections.
Bolger claimed, “The latest jobs report is “not going to inspire confidence in either the Biden administration’s policies or the direction the country’s going economically.”
Bolger also cautioned, that what will really matter is the health of the economy a year from now, when voters begin to cast ballots. That is unknown, and the jobs report contained reasons for optimism — with rising wages and hours worked.
Democrats told voters that the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits that back in September would create a rush to employment, but Friday’s figures indicate that the exact opposite happened.
The labor force participation rate — which measures the percentage of people who have jobs or are seeking work — ticked down in September to 61.6%. That rate was 63.3% before the pandemic and to achieve that level now another 4.3 million people would need to join the U.S. labor force.
One thing that seems clear is the unique nature of an economy that is still muddling through a pandemic. It has experienced unprecedented layoffs, historic levels of government aid, bursts of job growth, cooling off periods as the virus reasserted itself and the uncertainty caused by workers and employers adjusting to these conditions.
